noiseorsignal.exetoday
./calls/027.mdOpening
call #27 · verdict: opening

An open-weight model now sits one point behind the best proprietary coding agent on a public benchmark

The gap between open weights and the frontier labs keeps closing, and release notes now read like safety filings.

The same release reports hallucinations cut from 23.4% to 8.3%, with the numbers published.

Moonshot’s Kimi K3.1 Pro is a 3T-class open-weight model with a 1M-token context. On Terminal-Bench 4.0 it scores 65.7%, ahead of GPT-6 Astra at 58.2% and just behind Claude Opus 5.5 at 66.4%, by Moonshot’s own evals. A Highspeed variant runs 2-3x faster. Both are live today on Kimi.ai, Kimi Code, and the API, and the weights are due by November 4. Moonshot also says it deliberately removed cyber-training data and published before-and-after numbers for that too.

My read: the gap between open weights and the frontier labs keeps closing, and release notes now read like safety filings.
Your pick: run K3.1 Pro on one real coding task through the API this week. Keep your evals model-agnostic so you can swap when the weights drop.

12 months: open-weight coding agents are the default for cost-sensitive teams.
24 months: model choice is a routing decision.
36 months: frontier capability concentrates in a few labs and the rest is commoditised.

Why I may be wrong: these are vendor-run benchmarks, and the internal numbers can’t be checked from outside.

What score on your own evals would earn it a slot?

Source: kimi.ai ↗

./predictions3 dated

Predictions

HorizonPredictionDueStatus
12mOpen-weight coding agents are the default for cost-sensitive teams.PENDING
24mModel choice is a routing decision.PENDING
36mFrontier capability concentrates in a few labs and the rest is commoditised.PENDING
Each prediction is graded HIT or MISS when it comes due.Scorecard →
./discuss